By Robert Ferringo
Looks like we have an exceptional series ahead of us between Boston and Tampa Bay for the right to represent the American League in the World Series. Here are some things that I will be looking at as I handicap this series and these games:
1) Road wins
This series is basically akin to a world-class tennis match, in that the first team to have its serve broken may be the loser. Tampa Bay simply dominates at home. The Rays are 55-17 in their last 72 at The Trop, and when they have played in front 30,000 or more fans they are a ridiculous 21-2. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that they will sell out on Friday and Saturday.
And in the last five years there might not be a tougher place for a road team to score a victory than Fenway Park. The crowd, the history, the quirks, and the fact that the Sox are pretty damn good all conspire against road teams in October.
So who will flinch first? Obviously, Boston needs to win at least one game at Tampa Bay in order to win the series. They swept the Angels in Los Angeles in the first round - and the Angels were nearly as strong as Tampa when it comes to winning at home. But the Red Sox were also swept twice and lost seven straight in Florida. Further, Boston is just 6-16 this year on turf.
But I also don't think that Tampa Bay can rely solely on the fact that they have home-field advantage and if they want to win this series I think they have to win at least one game in Fenway. If this series comes back to The Trop at 3-2, Boston, then I feel that the experience advantage that the Red Sox have will give them a big edge. Not only that, but if Boston sweeps three straight in Beantown then they will be riding a tremendous wave of momentum and I don't know if the young Rays will be able to stem that. These Red Sox have won multiple championships in the last four years. And you don't get to that point without being able to win some tough games on the road and showing a little salt.
2) Tampa Bay's young arms
The Rays are backing some serious stud arms in the postseason. James Shields and Scott Kazmir are as good of a one-two punch as any club in baseball. And Matt Garza is sneaky-good in the No. 3 hole.
However, there are some factors which could actually favor Boston in these matchups. First, James Shields is a wreck on the road. He has an ERA of 10.00 in Fenway and is 0-3 there this season. Second, the Red Sox are one of the best teams in the league against left-handed pitching. They have been in the Top 5 in hitting southpaws all year. Again, give them two cracks at Kazmir and I think they get one of them. Third, do you really trust Matt Garza? Finally, the Red Sox took on Cleveland last year when C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona were simply devastating the league. They took down the Indians. Now you tell me who is better right now: 2008 Shields-Kazmir or
3) The Wakefield Effect
Tim Wakefield's butterfly knuckleballs could hold the key to this entire series. He's slated to throw Game 4 in Boston and no matter what the situation it's going to be a critical outing. Someone is like to be up 2-1, either way, and that game will be the fulcrum on which the series is shaped.
On one hand, Wakefield has been a money pitcher in the postseason for Boston. He has come up huge in many a big situation over the last five or six years and this would be yet another tricky spot for the crafty knuckler. His counterpart would likely be Andy Sonnanstine, a youngster with no idea what it's like to throw in a game of this import. Also, Wakefield OWNS the Rays in his career. He is 19-5 in 31 career starts against Tampa Bay and is 10-2 against them at home.
On the other hand, it's feast or famine for Wakefield. If Tampa is on the knuckler, if the ump has a tight zone, or if Wakefield just doesn't have control, the Rays could throw up a five-spot early in the game and take the crowd right out of it. Wakefield is 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA against the Rays this year in three starts. I think his start will make or break the series.
4) Varitek vs. Navarro
I think that the running game for both teams is going to be critical. Manufacturing runs and staying out of double plays to manage big innings could turn the tide for one side or the other. Tampa is full of players who like to run, particularly Crawford, Upton, Bartlett, and Iwamora. The Red Sox have some guys that can move as well (Ellsbury, Crisp). But the difference is that Navarro is No. 2 in the Major Leagues in terms of catching base stealers (38.7 percent) while Jason Varitek is the fourth-worst at throwing out runners (22.2 percent) of the everyday backstops. If Tampa is running all over Varitek and the Boston pitchers - and remember that the threat of running and how that effects a pitcher can sometimes be even more impactful than an actual stolen base - then the Red Sox are screwed. On the flip side, if Navarro can keep key Boston baserunners at bay in late-inning situations that is another big benefit for the Rays.
5) Closer Comparison
This one is pretty simple. The Red Sox have Jon Papelbon, who is one of the best in the business. He is a proven postseason stud and is a hammer at the end of games. The Rays relied on Troy Percival, another proven veteran stopper at the back end of a game, for most of the year. But Percy is out for the year and there is still a void at the end of the Rays pen. Tampa has been fine through the regular season and even against the White Sox without a "true" closer. But if they get into a Game 7 and they have a one-run lead in the ninth inning, who are they going to go to and will he be able to get the job done?